I have resolved the crude oil movement by rail issue that arose yesterday by comparing American Association of Railroads (AAR) data with EIA data. The following is Art Berman’s take on the matter. This is because the pipelines are usually at max capacity so as production drops rail traffic takes the blunt of the decline.
Oil by rail for the USA peaked about three months earlier.Īlso the percentage of oil shipped by rail drops as production drop. The peak, for North Dakota, is December 2014. Related: Can This Next Shale Hotspot Live Up To The Hype?Īs we can see from this chart the volume of oil shipped by rail changes from month to month. The EIA says: Between 60% and 70% of the more than 1 million barrels per day of oil produced in the state has been transported to refineries by rail each month in the first half of 2014, according to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority. I have converted the weekly “daily average” to monthly “daily average” and plotted it against the North Dakota production. That gives us the average barrels per day by rail.
I have converted the weekly carloads to daily then converted carloads to barrels. Related: Can This Next Shale Hotspot Live Up To The Hype? Oil by rail, for the entire USA, peaked in August, September and October of 2014 and has declined since.
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